香港亚洲时报
Tianjin's cautious transformation
By Daniel Allen
TIANJIN - The port of Tianjin, a thriving gateway for foreign trade at the end of the 19th century, is once again fast becoming a key conduit for the international flow of goods and money. With Shanghai preoccupied with domestic capital markets, the Chinese government wants to transform Tianjin into a hub for direct finance, venture capital and foreign exchange, establishing the area as northern China's foremost financial capital.
After more than a decade of development and construction, Tianjin's Binhai New Area (BNA), which has an area of more
than 2,200 square kilometers, is flourishing. The area's gross domestic product has increased from 11.2 billion yuan (US$1.5 billion) in 1993 to 196 billion yuan last year, with an annual average growth rate of 20%. Financial revenue over the same period has risen from 2.36 billion yuan to 38 billion yuan. Tianjin, the third-largest city in China and located on the northeast coast, is one of four province-level municipalities.
Last year the State Council revealed its intent to develop Tianjin and its environs as a special economic zone, similar to Shenzhen and Shanghai's Pudong area, with the aim of using it as a test bed for "important reforms" related to financial restructuring and deregulation.
As part of this experiment, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced plans last month to introduce a trial scheme that would allow Chinese citizens to invest unlimited sums in overseas securities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Under this groundbreaking move, which marks the biggest reform of China's tightly controlled foreign-exchange systems to date, all Chinese passport holders with adequate funds will be able to open brokerage accounts with a Tianjin branch of the Bank of China, the country's top foreign-exchange bank, to buy and sell Hong Kong shares. These accounts would be free from current rules that restrict Chinese to $50,000 in foreign-exchange transactions per year.
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Lin Peidong, an analyst with the Tianjin Economic-technological Development Area (TEDA), is skeptical about the scheme's short-term effectiveness, commenting, "To some extent this measure may reduce liquidity in the mainland stock and property markets. However, with mainland A-shares doing so well right now, many investors may only consider Hong Kong an option when A-shares go to bear. In my opinion the FDI [foreign direct investment] and trade surplus are more likely to be reinvested back into production. As long as A-shares are doing well, I don't think this experiment in direct overseas investment will be so useful."
The huge surge in mainland China's A-share market, the class of shares available only to domestic investors, has elevated China to second spot in terms of global market capitalization. During the first five months of 2007 the value of the market more than doubled, boosting China's total market cap from $4.2 trillion in January to $5.6 trillion at the end of May.
While Beijing may have suffered from a sudden case of cold feet over the trial investment scheme, Tianjin is confident it has the backing of the government as outlined in the 11th Five-year Plan. This year the city also applied to set up the country's first national over-the-counter stock exchange as part of its plan to become a regional financial powerhouse, and is awaiting a decision from Beijing.
Beijing is also set to approve as many as 10 domestic venture-capital funds in Tianjin. Led by the Yindao Fund, they will be worth a total of $2.6 billion, and are intended to build up the domestic venture-capital industry as a rival to foreign-owned funds. The project will "allow China's own Samsungs and Motorolas to transform themselves from cats into tigers", commented Ni Xiangyu, vice chairman of the TEDA, in an interview with The Financial Times recently.
Steven Tam, president of the Tianjin American Chamber of Commerce, commented, "Tianjin is a rather conservative city. Some of the leaders are not too forward-thinking. The central government has brought in new blood in the past couple of years to inject proper leadership in the whole bureaucracy. In five to 10 years, Tianjin will be vastly different to how it is today. I think the continued support and encouragement from the central government is essential."
The Tianjin municipality has also recently conferred preferential tax status on its Dongjiang Bonded Harbor Area (DBHA), which is being constructed on a strip of reclaimed land. Together with the adjacent Tianjin port, the area will form the new core of the BNA. More than 75% of key construction projects confirmed by Tianjin this year are taking place in Binhai. As the principal investor in Dongjiang, the Tianjin Port Group will receive all tax revenues from commercial land and sea use at the port until 2020.
According to reports, a tax-bonded zone of about 4 square kilometers will be operational within Dongjiang by the end of this year. The director of this zone, Feng Zhijiang, said the development would consolidate Tianjin's role as an international supply-chain center servicing Northeast Asia. A trade and financial center will be established to facilitate trade with central and western China, and there will also be an industrial aviation park, an airport bonded zone, and a free-trade logistics park.
Three shipping giants are already planning to move containers via the DBHA. Sweden's Mediterranean Shipping Co, France's Compagnie Maritime d'Affretement, and South Korea's Hanjin Shipping have all signed agreements with Tianjin port, aiming to take advantage of the beneficial economic policies that will soon be implemented.
Tianjin port, the largest of its kind in northern China, is aiming to put through 270 million tonnes of freight traffic this year, and to reach 7 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container turnover. The port recorded cargo throughput of 258 million tonnes last year, ranking sixth in the world, and container turnover reached 5.95 million TEUs.
More than 70 Fortune Global 500 corporations have set up 152 companies in the BNA, and cumulative FDI now exceeds $19 billion. The BNA's foreign-export value surged from $500 million in 1993 to $22.6 billion last year. Key overseas investors in the BNA to date include Motorola, Samsung, Toyota, Airbus and Coca-Cola.
Despite the fact that the BNA has already attracted some corporate heavyweights, Steven Tam believes the key to maximizing Tianjin's FDI may lie further down the organizational hierarchy.
"Tianjin continues to lag behind other cities in attracting SMEs," he said, referring to small and medium enterprises. "I think the municipality finally realizes this shortcoming, and the BNA is offering fresh and attractive opportunities for new foreign investment. If the Tianjin government can focus more of their effort in marketing investment opportunities to SMEs, they will reap great rewards."
中文版
“港股直通车”试验场:
天津将成华北最大金融物流中心
撰文 Daniel Allen
2007/09/14, 周五
天津 --- 19世纪末的天津曾经是中国对外贸易的一道大门,而如今的天津,正再一次发展成为国际物流和资金流动的重要通道。按照中国政府的规划,上海主要着眼于国内资本市场,而天津的方向定位,则是华北最重要的直接股资、风险投资及外汇中心。
天津是中国第三大城市,位于东北沿海,也是4个直辖市之一。经过十多年的建设完善,占地2200多平方公里的“天津滨海新区”呈现出一派生机勃勃的景象。该区的GDP从1993年的112亿元人民币(15亿美元)增长到去年的1960亿元人民币,年均增长20%。同期,财政收入也从23.6亿元增长到380亿元人民币。
去年中国国务院宣布,计划将天津建设成为一个类似于深圳和上海浦东的经济特区,作为金融改制及开放等重要改革的试点。作为此次试验的一环,中国国家外汇管理局上月宣布的《开展境内个人直接投资境外证券市场试点方案》(即“港股直通车”),就首先在天津滨海区试行。
此举标志著中国迄今为止对外汇体制最大动作的改革。根据这措施,中国境内居民将可以通过中国银行天津分行和香港中银国际证券有限公司,以自有外汇或人民币购汇的方式,直接投资香港证券交易所公开上市的证券品种,且投资规模不受年度不超过5万美元的购汇总额限制。
由于贸易顺差大和国内投资热等原因,外来资金大量流入中国市场,因此北京当局希望实施“港股直通车,能够转移部分资金。另外,中国外汇储备目前已达到1.3万亿美元之巨,不利于冷却过热的经济,这加剧了通货膨胀,而且给人民币造成了升值的压力。
不过并非所有人都相信该措施能够达到预期的效果。日前,国务院就宣布暂时推迟“港股直通车”,原因是银行业、证券业的监管部门担心,该计划将会导致大量资金撤出深圳和上海的A股市场,和令香港股市过热。
《上海证券报》近日引述某官方消息称,新措施最早可能会在国庆长假结束后实施。而《中国证券报》则在上周报道,计划会推迟一两月时间,可能会在10月15日召开的***第17届全体代表大会结束后实行。
若是容许外汇自由兑换,在外来资金大量流入中国的情况下,自然会使得人民币升值。可是让欧美国家失望的是,北京当局至今尚未允许人民币汇率自由浮动。为了解决人民币汇率偏低所引起的流动资金过剩问题,中国政府计划组建一个专责监管中国外汇海外投资的部门。
对于“港股直通车”未来的影响,渣打银行经济学家刘健恒提出了一番见解。“实施‘南水北调’后到底会有多少资金注入香港,虽然现阶段很难估计,但是香港是一个高度开放的经济体,而且中国居民投资港股没有限额,因此中国经济和香港股市的表现将变得越来越互相依存。”
他说,“如果香港股市的表现一如人们期望那样向上,那么资产价格的通货膨胀,可能将成为一个重大的政策问题。中国股市一直有过热的倾向,而香港将愈益发现难以独善其身、与新兴市场的特征保持距离。”
天津经济技术开发区分析师林先生,则对“港股直通车”的短期效应表示怀疑。“这项措施在一定程度上,能够减少内地股市和房地产市场当中的流动资金。可是,既然内地A股目前的表现如此出色,许多投资者也许只会在A股下跌时,才将香港作为一条出路。在我看来,外来直接投资和贸易顺差所来的资金,很可能再次投资到生产领域。只要A股表现不错,这个试行方案对直接对外投资的作用不会太大。”
A股市场的大幅上涨,已经使得中国成为全球第二大资本市场。今年头5个月,A股市场的总值增长超过一倍。截止到5月底,A股总市值从1月份的4.2万亿美元,增加到5.6万亿美元。
虽然“港股直通车”暂缓执行,但是天津自信能够得到政府“十一五”规划的全力支持。今年天津还向国务院申请成立全国首家“第三板”证券交易所,最终能否获批,尚待最高决策层定夺。
另外,中国正为首批本土风险资本基金提供资金,拟在天津滨海新区设立的基金将多达10只,投资总额逾260亿元人民币。天津经济技术开发区副主席近日在接受《金融时报》采访时谈到,这些基金将帮助中国自己的企业品牌发展壮大。
美国商会天津分会会长谭锡均(Steven Tam)表示,“天津是一个相当保守的城市,有些领导人的思想还不够先进。近年来中央政府给天津的领导班子注入了新的血液。在5到10年内,天津将会发生巨大的变化。我想中央政府的长期支持和鼓励是非常重要的。”
日前,天津市政府还对“东疆保税港区”授予了特惠税收待遇,计划将东疆港区和天津港建设成为滨海新区的核心地带。今年,天津政府所批准的建设项目中超过75%都在滨海区内。“天津港集团”是东疆港区的首要投资者,在2020年之前,有权收取所有港区商业用地及水域的税收。
据报道,占地4平方公里的东疆保税港区将于今年年底投入运行。该区的负责人表示,保税区将进一步巩固天津作为东北亚的国际供应链中心。据悉,天津还将建立一个贸易金融中心、工业航空园区、机场区和自由贸易物流园区。
目前已有三家大型海运公司与天津港口签订了合作协议,希望获益于该区即将享受的优惠经济政策,包括瑞典的地中海航运公司(Mediterranean Shipping Co)、法国的达飞轮船有限公司(Compagnie Maritime d'Affretement)以及韩国的韩进航运公司(Hanjin Shipping)。
天津港是华北第一大港,今年计划实现货物吞吐量2.7亿吨和集装箱700万标准箱。去年,天津港货物吞吐量已达到2.58亿吨和集装箱595万标准箱,世界排名第六。
目前在《财富》杂志所评选出的“全球500强”企业中,共有70家企业在天津滨海区设立了152个公司,直接投资累计超过190亿美元。去年滨海区的对外出口总值,已从1993年的5亿美元上升到226亿美元。在滨海区扎根的重要企业包括摩托罗拉、三星、丰田、空中客车和可口可乐等等。
虽然滨海区已经吸引了不少巨头公司,但谭锡均指出,天津如何尽最大限度的吸收外来投资,关键在于结构的调整。
“天津吸引中小型企业投资的步伐,仍然落后于其它城市。我想天津市政府已经意识到这一点,滨海区也为吸收新的外来投资创造了新的机会。如果天津政府集中向中小型企业宣传这些投资机会,收获将会是巨大的。”
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英文版有些小差别
[ 本帖最后由 kill_bill 于 2008-1-19 01:02 编辑 ]